Year: 2012

How Everyone Else is Preventing Me From Winning the Mega-Millions Lottery

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My golden ticket

Tonight the Mega-Millions jackpot is going to make history as the largest sum of money ever won from the lottery. With my 12 tickets in hand, I am already counting my winnings and planning what to do with all that money. I have determined my retired father-in-law is going to work for me once I win all that money.

I need a light bulb changed, here is $1,000 to go buy me the latest in energy saving bulbs AND install it for me. I have a craving for conch fritters…here is my private jet and a spear to go get me some fresh ones out of the ocean. Not only am I going to be filthy rich, but so is my father-in-law. Maybe, just maybe I will even let him ride along with me in my new Lamborghini. We can all dream big, can’t we?

Well my chances of hitting it big really are not that stacked in my favor. The chances of winning the Mega-Millions: 1 in 175,711,536. The chances of getting struck by lightning in your lifetime: 1 in 3,000. The chances of me having a spoonful of peanut butter with honey today: very probable. So I can dream all I want, but the reason I am not going to win the lottery is because of every one of you that is also playing.

The man on the Today Show this morning, who won the lottery 7 times says it is because he studies which numbers come up most often. In addition, he proclaims never play numbers if they have won before. OK, so the guy did win the lottery 7 times, but the random assortment of numbers all have an equal probability of coming up in the lottery. Unless someone figured out a way to weigh the balls differently, causing a greater chance of them to settle out into the playing field. That is it; the balls with more paint on them surely must be the ones that weight the most. I am going to be filthy rich with my new approach.

As I was getting ready for work this morning, my mathematical mind started to wonder, and here is my plan for winning the lottery. The odds of winning are 1 in 175,711,536. The current jackpot is $540 million. Therefore, if I can garner $175,711,536 before the drawing of numbers, I can guarantee a win by purchasing every possible combination of numbers. In other words, for a small donation of $175,711,536, I can guarantee a return of $540 million. That is until every single other person buying a ticket gets involved in my scheme.

1) The first problem would be how someone could possibly purchase that many tickets? How many machines would it take printing non-stop to print out every possible winning combination of numbers. My mathematical mind can not figure it out thinking about all my future winnings.

2) Even if I had a ticket with every possible winning number, how would I find the ONE ticket among millions of little pieces of paper. It would be like the scene in Willy Wonka where the factory owner used all of his employees to open candy bar after candy bar until they found the golden ticket. Who is in?

3) Taxes. OK, so $540 million will not really be $540 million. First, if I purchase $175,711,536 worth of tickets, that should also go into the pot, making the new jackpot $715,000,000. I am getting richer just thinking about this. Now I am just going to assume worst case scenario of a lump sum payment, and every hand gets their fair share. So if 50% of the money goes to helping out every community I live in, I would still be left with about $357,500,000. I guess I can still afford to pay my father-in-law extraordinary fees for my menial tasks.

Even with my $175,711,536 investment, I still stand to come out approximately $182,000,000 richer. I think that is a great return on investment everyone. You in yet?

4) The biggest obstacle is each and every one of you challenging my winning endeavor. If even one of you also comes up with the winning number combination, my winnings just got cut in half. Are my opportunity costs still viable?

Add a couple more winning tickets to the fray, and now I start to lose money. So the best chances of me to win this huge lump of money is for each one of you to stop playing. I want the golden ticket! I WANT THE GOLDEN GOOSE OR A TRAINED SQUIRREL OR somebody to just change my light bulbs.

So stay away America, as tonight I am going to win the Mega-Millions jackpot. Willy Wonka Bars for all who help contribute to the $175,711,536 I need to finish off the plan.

Presidential White House Easter Egg Roll or Hayes Center

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Our family missed the chance to enter a lottery for tickets to the annual White House Easter Egg Roll this year. Maybe next year I will keep it on our calendar to try and remember to enter. The historic Easter egg roll at the White House started in 1878 under the leadership of than President Rutherford B. Hayes after the practice was banned by law in 1876 (Turf Protection Law) on Capitol grounds.

2012 White House Easter Egg Roll

This year, on April 9, 2012, the White House anticipates over 35,000 people to attend the day after Easter egg roll event on the South Lawn. The official White House event is broken up into 5 different time slots starting at 7:45 AM and going until 5:45 PM. Breaking the groups down into approximately 7,000 people each has to be a lot more manageable not only for the South Lawn, but also for the Secret Service. Thank goodness we have big landscaping budgets to repair the South Lawn afterwards.

To be invited under any President would be grand, and I would remember the experience forever provided I did not try to pull off anything funny. You do not want to be the guy to toss your egg into the air as Secret Service Agents on the roof will be keeping an eye on your activities.

For a less stressful time (i.e. no Men in Black security agents), one can always head over to Fremont, OH (close to Cedar Point for all of you non-Ohioians) at the The Hayes Presidential Center for their annual egg roll. No lottery is necessary, but each child 3-12 years of age needs to bring 3 hard-boiled eggs to participate.

The egg roll at the Hayes Center was recently listed as one of the top ten nicest Easter egg events in the Country according to Budget Travel. Children will receive a free ticket to the Museum or Home for participating in the egg roll activities, but fortunately, children under the age of 6 are free anyways.

I had hopes of our family getting out to the Hayes Center prior to the release of this article, but our weekends have been full, and we will not be able to attend the Easter egg roll. Just writing and researching about the Hayes Center got me excited to see the place, so I have made plans to not only attend this historic landmark of Ohio and Presidential history, but also document some of the other various sites across Ohio. Stay tuned.

My Easter Egg Hunt Lesson Learned

I do have one age-old lesson that I learned this year that never seems to change. Easter Egg hunts are unfair! The idea is for kids (and in our case, we are talking about toddlers here) to have fun, not how many eggs they get to take home. Our family managed to make it out to one local Easter egg hunt this year, and I manage to learn nothing has changed over the last 30+ years.

When my sister and I were kids, I remember my parents making comments about how unfair Easter egg hunts were because each kid did not manage to get a proportional share of the eggs, if any. So as our boys ran out into the field with other 0-3 year old toddlers, they did not fully grasp the concept of picking up eggs, and had to be assisted by parents. Afterwards, I heard the same story from other parents about how unfair egg hunts are and kids should be limited on how many eggs they receive by the organizers.

There is no way for the organizers to know how many kids are going to show up to a public Easter egg hunt, nor is there a way to make it fair for all of the kids. An Easter egg hunt lasts about less than a minute, and there is no way to tell each person you are only limited to x number of eggs. An egg hunt is about having some fun and the tradition, not how many eggs you get to take home. Maybe the White House will have some executive rules in place for us next year to ensure an equal experience for each kid. 🙂

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Tingo.com is the New AutoSlash for Rebookable Hotel Rooms

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I am late to the party again with my brilliant ideas, and who is the perfect person to remind me of that, my sister. About a month or so ago, as my friend and I were messing around with AutoSlash.com, we asked the question, why is there not a site that does the same thing for hotels? The beauty about AutoSlash.com, and vehicle rentals in general, is that guests never have to pay for the reservation upfront (unless they chose a non-refundable rate). Everyone can make and cancel vehicle reservations all day long, watching for lower rates if you are consistent with searching…or let AutoSlash.com do all the work for you. So the same model could easily be applied to hotel reservations.

Personally, I had mixed experiences with AutoSlash. We have two reservations for Hawaii booked through AutoSlash, and the prices have only changed once immediately after booking. After the second booking changed prices immediately after booking, I started to have my doubts. I was lead to believe the system automatically was set up to make people think it is working for you by pricing out the vehicle knowing they have a secret discount lined up in their back pocket. The business plan is great, but until I see repricing up until the trip, I will continue to have my doubts.

The problem I have with AutoSlash is never hearing anything else again, wondering if AutoSlash was continuing to run the numbers for me? It has been months since I made the reservations with no price changes from AutoSlash, which concerns me. Have the prices not dropped? Are they trying all the available discount codes that the public can use?

We are continuing our own due diligence to make sure the system is honest, and for the most part there have not been any drastic or noticeable price adjustments. I realize that the reservations are still months away, the prices in Hawaii are expensive, and they have not fluctuated that much. I also have other friends who have had positive experiences with AutoSlash’s service. So I am thinking the AutoSlash service works a lot better with reservations closer to departure, and that maybe I need to give the system more of a chance.

I spend countless hours each week watching prices for the various vacations we have planned throughout the year. I have all the prices stuck in my head (or a spreadsheet), and as soon as I see fluctuation, I jump on it. The whole process is cumbersome to save a couple of bucks, but I really enjoy it. It is a hunt for the best deal. So is there really value in a process that price checks everything for the consumer, and can it be reliable?

This month Tingo.com, a Smarter Travel Media company (i.e. AirfareWatchdog.com) was released to the public. Just like AutoSlash, guests pick their hotel, and if a lower price becomes available, they automatically rebook and refund your credit card the difference. The main difference between AutoSlash and Tingo (besides one is for rental vehicle and the other is for hotels) is that Tingo will charge your credit card in full at the time of the booking; AutoSlash does not, as all payments are directly with the vendor when you pick up the vehicle.

My problem is that the rates through Tingo are fully refundable and do not require pre-payment with the hotels. As is standard procedure, you pay your hotel bill after the service has been provided, unless you use book a non-refundable rate or use a third party like Expedia, Orbitz, etc. Why does Tingo need to take my money ahead of the reservation on a fully refundable rate that I can book directly with the hotel and pay at a later time?

Consumers need to be aware that if they use Tingo to reserve their room, their money is locked up with Tingo until after your reservation. Tingo’s business model is to refund the price difference if the rates falls. While simple in theory, Tingo is acting as a bank for the hotel’s cash. Tingo takes your money, sits on it while earning interest, I presume, and then pays the bill when it comes time to pay the hotel. The more I look into Tingo, the more I see it as just another version of the Orbitz Price Assurance program. I have concerns with this plan as it is personally not for me.

If the website booked a hotel, even requiring a hold on a credit card, which is standard, I would be fine with that. Then if the price dropped, it would cancel the previous reservation and rebook at the lower rate. The whole time, my credit card never would really be charged. Payment for services would eventually be rendered through the hotel. At least that is how I think it should all happen, but maybe the hotels Tingo is partnered with have special restrictions.

I presume most people do not like sitting around watching and waiting for prices to fall. For those, Tingo’s service may be right up their alley, provided they do monitor the prices and issue refunds accordingly. I am initially skeptical.

In all fairness, provided you book a Money Back rate with Tingo, all payments are fully refundable with no cancellation fees from Tingo. Each individual hotel may impose their own cancellation fees, and the consumer is responsible for researching the cancellation/refund policy prior to booking.

So lets see if using Tingo.com can make a difference, at least on the front end.

Since I have Hawaiian beaches on my mind, I randomly chose a peak week during the summer months (July 11-18, 2012) at the Holiday Inn Beachcomber for two adults. As a reminder, we will be staying there too this summer via Priority Club points. I was also familiar with their prices for comparison sake. I chose the same King bedroom with partial ocean view for both reservations.

Tingo Example July Hawaii

Tingo’s daily night rate was the same as booking the room directly through IHG/Priority Club, but there was a slight variation in the taxes collected. Using the above example, I somehow think after booking this hotel using Tingo.com, the system will automatically trigger a refund for the small differences in taxes and fees equal to the difference between using their system or directly booking with the hotel. This minor discrepancy makes me have my doubts about the reliability of the data.

Priority Club Example July Hawaii

One feature that I think Tingo really falls short on, and where AutoSlash thrives is with discount rates like AAA. AutoSlash has the ability to add in your AAA number, Hertz Club number, or any other discount codes available through the car rental companies. I particularly like that I can add in a Hertz AAA discount code (1805452) in AutoSlash to not only get AAA’s rates, but also earn a free car seat rental directly into my reservation. (I am beginning to wonder if my particular specific search on AutoSlash may be another reason I have experienced limited success with rate changes.) Tingo does not currently have other discount and rate features built into their programing, which I think is really being overlooked. At a minimum, they should be able to compare rates with the AAA schedule since those rates are typically not advanced, non-refundable rates.

What I do find interesting though is an infograph put out by Tingo on hotel reservations.

Tingo infographic

Here you will find some key information for consumers, and where I think Tingo can really thrive. Their current research, and inevitably all the data they gather from future transactions will be compiled to see historically when the largest discounts will be available for hotel reservations. Currently their system shows the largest drop in prices approximately 4 weeks out, as hotel look to cut costs to fill rooms. What I really hope is that Tingo continues to process the discount data and make it publicly available so we all become knowledgeable in the pricing structures.

The important thing to note here is that just because Tingo’s data shows price drops four weeks out, you should not wait until this time to reserve if at all possible. The opposite thing that could potentially happen is prices could also go up if demand warrants it. I think that it is important for consumers to perform their own due diligence when it comes to prices, and book when they feel comfortable. Every situation is completely different depending on supply and demand. The key here though it to realize there is a chance of getting the best deal approximately 4 weeks in advance, and the closer you get, the less likely there may be to get a lower price.

I am no actuary, but I will continue to book my rates when I feel comfortable, based on trending and what else is available, and personally monitor them for lower prices. I will also make note to especially pay attention several weeks in advance of the trip for dropping prices.

As the consumer there are no hard and fast rules on when is the best time to buy something. We can either do our own due diligence and monitor the prices ourselves, or use a system like AutoSlash or Tingo to perform the service for us. Personally, I am too much of a control freak to let someone else do all the work for me without constantly questioning whether or not they are doing their job. I do think that both services have a place in the marketplace, and we will see how they do. I may consider still experimenting with their services to test the waters and see what I can discover.

Maybe next time I need to act more swiftly to get my ideas to press. Save Money, Travel More!